Economists delay expected Fed rate cut until 2024

According to Reuters, according to a new forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates only in the first quarter of next year.

Economists who took part in the survey believe that the US central bank, which is currently considering a rate hike, will cut it next year. In the previous survey, conducted in February, respondents expected the Fed to cut the rate in the last three months of this year. The Fed's key interest rate is in line with the central bank's current target range of 5% to 5.25%.

Regarding a possible recession in the US, the survey showed that a modest level of economic growth through 2024 is expected, amounting to 0.4% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the last three months of 2023.

Respondents also raised their estimate of inflation for 2023, forecasting a CPI of 3.3% between the last quarter of 2022 and the last quarter of 2023. In the previous survey, conducted in February, inflation was expected to be 3% in the same period.

The survey also reflected an improved job market outlook, with respondents now predicting an average of 142,000 jobs created per month, up from 102,000 in the previous February survey.